Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Systems in the Horn of Africa: A Cross- National Analysis of Kenya and Ethiopia

ABSTRACT:Conflict early warning and response systems have brought additional discourse on conflictprevention to maintain peace and stability in general and secure the lives of the people in conflict prone areas inparticular. This paper assesses the conflict early warning and response systems employed at national levels inKenya and Ethiopia. Both countries are members ofthe IGAD/CEWARN region in the Horn geopolitics fromthe sub-Saharan countries. They also experience cross border conflicts on the one hand and established jointborder commission and designed joint development intervention to resolve conflicts on the other. The objectiveof the study is to assess whether conflict early warning and response systems are institutionally operationalizedand serves as a tool for conflict prevention to proactively respond to conflicts.Besides, the paper aims to assesswhat variables of early warning and response systems they shared in common, what dissimilarities exist in thesystem and what experiences they learn from one another. The study employed qualitative desktop review andcomparative study approach for methodological reasons. The crux assessment of this study is based onscientifically valid variables and in-built tools of conflict early warning and response systems. These are; thelegal mandate, institutional structure and set up, warning indicators , situation room and information sources,thecommunication technology, the role of CSO and gender engagement and the models in use for conflict earlywarning and response systems. The major findings indicatethe enormous differences in the practices of conflictearly warning and response systems between the two countries. Kenya appears to have been practicing bestsystem in institutionalizing the system qualifying the variables of conflict early warning and response systems interms of utilization of information communication technology and engagement of the CSOs in the field at theearlier stage, while Ethiopia unfortunately practicing the least system. Nevertheless, the institutional design ofEthiopia is far from comprehensiveness. For one thing, minimum efforts have been made to institutionalizeandlaunch the system to operate andfor the other, the practicability or otherwise of the system is not clearlyimplemented on the ground. The absence of the comprehensive early warning and response system, unlike inKenya is a significant factor which results in the timely inaction of responses to conflicts that resulted inhumanitarian costs and material impacts. The gap gives more space to engage Ethiopia to institutionalize thesystem. In terms of few variables, there seems similarity between both countries. The finding has also pointedout that the main factor explaining the differences among them lies in the nature of institutional transformationswhich in turn are contingent to their attempts to transition to democracy and political stability. Ethiopia‟s effortsof building an effective conflict prevention strategy could be backed by drawing distilled lessons from theKenyan experiences. Finally, this paper suggests an integrated utilization and employment of the conflict earlywarning and early response systems is mandatory for the national governments of the Horn of Africa centeredontheir specific contexts. Key words: Conflict, causes of conflict, Conflict prevention, Conflict early warning, early response, indicators,institutions, ICT